Putting even more "anal" into the "inane analysis"
At the beginning of the year, Ed K raised several points in the inane analysis – let's see what time has done to them...
The top ten
Twenty-two people appeared on the top ten choices list for 2003, of which six died: Bob Hope (=2nd), Thora Hird (=4th), Katharine Hepburn (=6th), Warren Zevon (=8th), Leni Riefenstahl (=10th) and Denis Thatcher (=10th).
It's fair to say that most of these will be missed, not only because of their own particular merits, but also as old troopers in the Dead Pool world. It will be interesting to see whether the top half of 2004's top ten reflects much change.
Healthwatches
The inane analysis recognised 9 healthwatches. Of these, Paul Daisley, Major Ronald Ferguson, Denis Thatcher and Warren Zevon died.
Paul Daisley, who in December 2002 was declared only to have weeks to live, lasted until 18 June 2003 – a much-needed reminder that the Dead Pool isn't just an academic exercise, but may involve long illness and much suffering.
Bonuses and jokers
In talking about bonuses it is interesting to note that many more penalties are awarded than bonuses.
| Bonus/penalty | Value | Number awarded for 2003 | ||
| Unique pick | +1 | 14 | ||
| Suicide | +1 | 0 | ||
| Under 40 | +1 | 0 | ||
| Over 80 | –1 | 20 | ||
| Joker | Doubles score | 11 | ||
It will be interesting to see how the 2004 change in the bonus rule from under 40 to under 50 will affect team selections, but if the new rule had applied in 2003, only one extra bonus would have been awarded (for Paul Daisley, earning Otis and The Raven one extra point and Whittaker's Choice two). The bonus that really makes a difference is that for unique choices (see previous discussion).
In 2002, 45% of players scored with their joker; in 2003, it was 36% – not at all what was predicted. The inane analysis at the beginning of the game suggested that as the jokers were widely spread out this year (only three choices attracted more than one joker each), they would have a greater impact on the scoreboard. Well, yes, up to a point...
Five teams (The Raven, Rude Kid, Drummerboy, Whittaker's Choice and Jesus Jones) used the bonus system to get equal or higher scores than other teams who had actually scored more hits. However, when one looks at the figures, the bonus system doesn't have as great an effect on the game as might be thought.
The first graph represents the what the 2003 scoreboard would look like if bonuses existed, but no Jokers; the second (please excuse the dodgy formatting) if neither bonuses nor Jokers existed.
The result is surprising. There is very little leap-frogging in position, but rather a levelling of the playing field. The major change, of course, is that Otis's lead is completely erased – not only the result of his own bonuses but because, unlike those snapping at his heels, he didn't attract any penalties.
Perhaps this is how it should be – bonuses shouldn't result in anything too radical, but should make the game more interesting by adding or subtracting a point where it matters. Certainly, the game without bonuses looks a lot less interesting.
Wimmin...
Women only made up 20% of the team selections. In the final results, 8 of the 30 (25%) were women. I don't think there's anything significant in the difference in the two figures. Anyone feel like fielding a women's only team (Emily's List)?
Going for the double...
Of the five and a half married couples identified in the analysis, only Bob Hope died. For some reason, however, the Thatchers were missed in this count and Denis makes another contender. The two don't make a pair though, so nobody made the double.